The fall of the Jedi was one of the most tragic events in Star Wars history. Yet, it’s secondary to one of the main plots in the movie franchise: the scheming and rise of Emperor Palpatine. You know, the guy that shoots lightning from his fingers.
What exactly made it possible for Palpatine to rise to power and become one of the greatest villains of all time?
I went through my list of mental models and came up with some thoughts on the topic. All mental models are in bold.
Potential and kinetic energy (with a side of optionality):
The core of Palpatine’s strategy was to build up a tremendous amount of potential energy that could then be transformed into kinetic energy.
In his case, the potential energy was setting up all the pieces that would let him meet the two conditions he had to meet to rise to power. When the time was right, all of this potential to meet the two conditions would then materialize and be met.
Defeating the Jedi. This was the biggest threat to him. They would resist any coup that he staged. He prepared himself to defeat the Jedi by obtaining a huge clone army with chips in their heads that would force them into obedience when ordered to kill the Jedi. This was potential energy because he could give this order at any moment in time (which would make it become kinetic energy).
The former republic accepting him as Emperor. In other words, making the Republic and Senate comfortable with his obtaining the title and powers of emperor. In many ways this was a more incremental process. He schemed to become chancellor (a democratic position) and made the Republic comfortable with his emergency powers by starting the Clone Wars. This desensitized the Republic and created the potential to become Emperor when the time was right.
Notice here that he preserved optionality: a freedom to choose when to defeat the Jedi and grab power. This is part of what made the strategy so powerful. He kept building up massive potential energy and would convert it to kinetic energy when the timing suited him. This would make it possible to adapt given a thick fog of war that made it hard to predict exactly how the future would unfold. In this case, it was when Anakin became his apprentice and the Jedi learned of his identity.
Multiplying by zero and self-preservation
Palpatine’s plan had one major weakness. One factor that is like a zero in a multiplication: it results in zero no matter what all the other numbers are.
The zero was that he had to protect his true identity until the time was right to claim power. It’s basic self-preservation. If the Jedi were to find out who he was before the Clone Wars started, for instance, his plans would come crashing down.
This is one of the reasons he used his apprentices (Darth Maul and Count Dooku) so much. It allowed him to execute his plans without revealing his identity.
It’s also why he was willing to sacrifice local maxima such as small defeats in the Clone Wars. They were worth avoiding his identity being revealed.
As long as he preserved his identity and key points of his scheme moved along he would ultimately get a global maximum instead. He was happy to lose the battle but win the war.
Final thoughts
So there you have it. Palpatine’s rise to power as analyzed through mental models.
Notice that I used concepts from many different disciplines to come up with this analysis. We took from physics, biology, mathematics, finance, and international relations.
Also notice how going through a list of mental models can really advance your thinking very quickly.
The point isn’t whether you agree with the above observations. The point is that my thinking was significantly improved by working through my checklist.
We can develop major insights on a topic that we wouldn’t otherwise.
It’s one of the best shortcuts to becoming a better thinker.
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